AUD: Sale of Australian Dollar was not long in coming

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is losing ground, urged by Chinese statistics.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator USD is in the negative area for the pair AUD/ and is going up steadily, giving a buy signal; however volumes are minimal. Stochastic is leaving overbought   zone, and is giving a start to a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0120, the pair will go to 1.0100 and 1.0090.

If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels. Morning statistics from China, the main trade partner of Australia showed deceleration of economic growth rate up to 9.1% y/y in Q3 against 9.5% y/y in Q2. The AUD reacts to the index by going down: Overbought of the currency and deterioration of the external background are acting as a catalyst.In general, last week was successful for the AUD, which at first, took advantage of the external background, and later, statistics to regain from losses of September.

Unemployment rate in Australia declined to 5.2% in September versus the level of 5.3% in August. This data demonstrated dynamics for the first time since this March. Employment rate rose by 20.4 thousand last month, while analytics expected the growth of not more than 10 thousand. As noted in the Bureau of Statistics in Sydney, coal mining companies hire staff to meet demand for raw materials from China and India.This data has scored out expectations that the RBA will reduce the rate in the nearest future.

At the last regular meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.75% per annum. Thus, the pause in the process of monetary tightening policy of the RBA has been lasting for 11 months. In the follow-up comments the regulator said that monetary policy can mitigate in the future if inflation requires it.

The follow-up statement said that more time can be required to analyze the impact of turbulence in the markets. Apparently, the rate of the RBA is unlikely to be raised until the first quarter of 2012. As it became known last week business confidence NAB in Australia rose to -2 points in September against preliminary level of -3 points. At the same time business conditions increased by 2 points, as per NAB research, against preliminary level of -9 points, which the Research Agency attributed to the sharp fall of the AUD’s rate earlier.

According to the data released earlier, consumer confidence WESTPAC in Australia rose by 0.4% m/m, to the level of 97.2 points in October. As noted by monetary politician Evans it is possible that the rate will go down in November, since low growth of the index indicates general pessimistic sentiment.